The Chasm Between Prototype and Production

Jul 28, 2014
With Saturday's pro-gun ruling from U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, firearms advocates are simultaneously celebrating (cautiously) and evaluating (stringently) yet another pro-gun ruling against that city's ridiculous prohibitions against firearms ownership by law-abiding citizens. This time the federal court has said the city's prohibitions do not pass "any level of scrutiny" - and that's an out-of-hand rejection of the anti-gun argument that the right to keep and bear arms does not extend past one's front door. Literally. As in "don't you take that gun into your yard or you're in big trouble". As written, the right to concealed carry would apply to the right to be in your home and hidden from view rather than the right to carry a firearm in a concealed manner. It's too-soon to start celebrating anything but a single legal victory. The vehemently anti-gun governments on the state and local levels in California, Illinois, Maryland, New York and Washington, D.C. have more than proven themselves capable of thumbing their collective noses at any decision that doesn't go their way. But the latest ruling does show that in many cases, the courts still contain some judges who believe in the law rather than their interpretation of the law -as considered in "today's modern context." But today's news section also carries a statement from Remington concerning their R51 compact pistol. It's not a good news story for Remington or customers who purchased a gun that got universally good reviews in it's pre-release to the media. That's not good news for an industry working to deal with slowing sales across all but a few hot categories. But issuing the statement was the right choice for Remington. It's not good news, but it's straight talk- and while it confirms whispers inside the industry - and those angry consumer shouts outside it - it stops the conjecture about the R51. That's a bitter pill for any company to swallow, but acknowledging a problem and suggestion a solution does a lot to reassure existing and potential customers. But the R51 answers the question of what happens if you (excuse the pun) "jump the gun" and announce a product not ready for consumer consumption today? The answer is simple: nothing good for anyone associated with the introduction. For decades it wasn't unusual for gun companies to announce a gun knowing they were two years away from production. Neither was the practice of rolling out a slew of new models knowing only guns with good pre-sale numbers would ever go into production. At that time, the industry-standard communication timeline to consumers was a magazine production schedule. That long lead-time generally took care of consumer expectations. The Outdoor Wires and the plethora of similar services that have come onto the scene in the past decade have been instrumental in (finally) putting both those practices to rest. Manufacturers have told me - sometimes angrily - they've been forced to stop announcing new products not available for sale because angry consumers called, emailed or blasted them via social media for promoting something they couldn't buy. With apologies to the industry, it's one of the accomplishments I'm most proud of having had some hand in. My response to those resentful execs has usually pretty simple: deal with it. We live in an "instant" society. Consumers wants new products now. Not being able to follow through on a new product announcement - essentially a features and benefits sales piece - is today's equivalent of calling down the gods in Greek mythology. Sometimes you got the gods; most times you got the lightning. Ruger was the first company to capitalize on the new consumer mindset. They had gun writers queued up with consumers as dealers opened boxes that contained their newest gun. Most of the industry has caught on, stockpiling or shipping inventories before making announcements, or giving definitive availability dates. But the Remington R51 wasn't ready to go and that failure has resulted in serious confrontations - personally and professionally- between gun writers and their readers. And that problem has many writers questioning the symbiotic relationship that like long lead times for production, has been taken for granted inside the industry. Having been at the Remington R51 product announcement, I know the guns we shot - excessively - ran well, shot accurately and had no issues until they were red-hot and pig filthy. The same problems you encounter in any gun where gas pressure is essential to operation. The generous application of oil and a little cleaning quickly had them up and running. And we recognized they were prototypes- and labeled them as such in what we wrote. Using those standards, the R51got very favorable reviews. And Remington reaped a that benefit along with the nostalgia of using an earlier Remington handgun as the basis from which this "modernization" was derived. It had the ingredients of a good story: a solid gun too-complicated to manufacture in an earlier era now made possible through modern technological advances. Looked like a great combination for everyone.....until......production models hit the shelves. At that point, angry consumers posted YouTube videos of non-working guns and blasted gun writers "obviously" shilling for Remington. Then those accusations got personal. Publicly, writers under attack ignored the stinging criticism. A couple reminded me it of the rule about "wrestling a skunk". No one wins. Another said it was impossible to change an opinion when someone can't grasp the possibility that the impressed writer and the angry consumer could both be correct. Another writer quietly contacted his most rabid critic, inviting him to a face-to-face meeting. Despite indications of an inability to show good judgement before, the critic passed on the meeting. But, the controversy roiled under the surface. Consumers remained angry. And angry writers started asking questions. On Friday, Remington acknowledged the R51's problems. They also made a peace offering to purchasers of the R51s: send them back and we'll send you a brand new R51, two extra magazines and a Pelican case. Even before that announcement, retailers and distributors were candid: the R51 had "issues". Several manufacturers questioned Remington's whole handling of the R51 project. "A prototype," one product manager told me, "isn't close to a production gun. Even 99% reliable, it's only a prototype. 'Close' doesn't cut it for production guns. It has to be right. Or it's a disaster." Since Friday, several industry leaders have called, ostensibly to ask about the R51. But that was the bridge to a serious concern: an industry-wide slowdown. "Hot" guns are still selling, but manufacturers, distributors and retailers tell me they're sitting on inventories of guns with no demand. Inventories include the previously unobtainable modern sporting rifle. "I'm not talking about a normal summer slowdown," one CEO told me, "I'm talking zero demand. As slow as it was crazy only a few months ago. If you don't have one of those 'hot' products, you're not selling-anything." Independent retailers routinely admit fourteen percent- or deeper- declines in sales over prior years. Compared with the superheated marketplace of the past thirty months, the drops are significantly higher. They're concerned, but not panicked - yet. But retailers nationwide are quietly discounting slow-selling products. And not everyone is replenishing inventories. Some have chosen to pay down debt or stockpile cash. A real industry picture won't be obvious until manufacturer and distributor bills come due in October and November. Public companies will be required to give that picture -in detail - in their quarterly earnings reports. In preparation, some manufacturers are shutting down manufacturing and discounting existing inventories to release working capital. Others have had to take more drastic steps including canceling advertising contracts in order to reduce capital burn rates. Some companies don't have the luxury of voluntary cuts. They're being forced into cost-cutting by banks demanding assurances they can replay existing obligations. If they can't, they face the prospect of a credit reduction or the outright revocation of their credit facilities. Because of the time between purchasing raw materials and collecting for consumer sales, credit is critical to manufacturing. Without credit, materials stop flowing. Today, most large companies employing just-in-time manufacturing/warehousing, so raw goods must move in a timely manner. Reduction of a credit line can quickly turn a challenging manufacturing situation toxic- fast. The superheated selling period is, apparently, over -although it will be late fall before we can be certain. If that's true, it will be up to the best managers to urge the best performance from their companies. Otherwise, the industry will be headed for another round of consolidations. --Jim Shepherd